Is the third time the charm? The idiom, without the ‘is’ and the question mark, expresses the hope that a third attempt at something will succeed after two failed attempts. If you do not like the word ‘charm’, you could go with ‘lucky’. Is South Africa’s National Budget 2025 III, presented on May 21, the charm?

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s presentation of the third iteration of the 2025/26 Budget speech evoked the words of John W Bergman: “There is never enough time to do it right, but there is always enough time to do it over.” The central reason for the third instalment is attributable to a three-letter acronym – VAT. Are you surprised that it resulted in an unprecedented budget repeat? If you are, then you are in the minority, as, in the words of the Minister, “it is unsurprising then that the increase in value-added tax proposed on March 12 created so much debate.” Then why suggest it? The Minister continued: “A vital debate, no doubt, but one that also created some uncertainty.” Confused? Is the lesson to be drawn that, henceforward, a national Budget is only tabled once a tax debate has been concluded? “There is clarity now: VAT will remain at 15%.”

If you are still wrestling with “the third time’s the charm”, you might well contemplate what a fourth time would be called. Although there is no formal fourth, I found two options: “fourth time’s a routine” and “fourth time’s a grind”.

That said, this piece is titled ‘Brace! Brace! Brace!’, and not ‘Third time’s the charm’, for the simple reason that you might well have missed another media release on the same day – from the commissioner of the South African Revenue Service (Sars). Titled ‘The estimate announced by the Minister imposes the responsibility on Sars to implement revenue-raising initiatives’, it aligns with the Minister’s speech: “The reality, however, is that the decision to do away with the VAT increase, without a viable alternative source of revenue, significantly reduced our ability to fund additional government programmes and projects to the extent we had deemed necessary.”

Before getting to ‘revenue raising initiatives’ and ‘viable alternative source of revenue’ – interestingly singular – the increase in the VAT rate was expected to net R11.5-billion. So, one can deduce that government intends to collect this amount from a declining tax base. South Africa already has a tax buoyancy of 1.36%, meaning its tax revenue grows faster than its GDP.

I once had the misfortune of being on an aircraft that had to undertake an emergency landing, with the pilot simply warning, “Brace for impact!” – while the flight attendants chanted: “Brace! Brace! Brace! Heads down!”

So, as a taxpayer, what should you brace for? Additional tax collection initiatives? Let’s turn to the Sars commissioner’s 1 012-word media release, titled ‘Sars commits to improved and faster revenue collection in 2025/26’.

“To meet its revised revenue estimate this year, Sars is: (i) Refining and using advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence to detect tax-compliance risks, close the tax gap, and improve overall compliance rates. By integrating expanded third-party data sources, such as banking and payroll information, the system can increasingly automate tax assessments and more effectively identify under- reported income, thereby strengthening efforts to combat tax evasion. (ii) Combating the illicit economy, especially in high-revenue sectors such as tobacco, alcohol, and fuel. Through enhanced enforcement against smuggling, counterfeit goods, and black-market transactions, Sars aims to recover substantial revenue losses and deter future noncompliance within these sectors of the informal economy. (iii) Broadening the tax base by systematically identifying and registering individuals and businesses that have previously operated outside the formal tax system. Targeting the hard-to-tax sectors in the informal economy, particularly small enterprises and self- employed individuals, supports increased revenue mobilisation and helps to reduce reliance on a narrow tax base. (iv) Closing the tax gap by investing in advanced skills and systems.”

According to a Moneyweb article published on May 14, there is a name for this initiative – Project AmaBillions, which is “designed to intensify the service’s tax collection efforts across several taxpayer segments and through various procedural channels”.